Nobody ever knows why the stock market goes up or down every day. But that doesn't stop people from offering reasons. For instance, people used to say that if oil prices fell, stocks would rise. They said that if the government came to the rescue of troubled financial institutions, that would boost stocks. And they suggested that if the Fed cut interest rates more than expected, investors would buy stocks.
But today, The New York Times decided not to even offer an explanation. It suggested that nobody knows. And I agree with the Times -- I just disagree on all the other days when the media does offer an explanation for the daily movement of the stock market. Here are some of the discredited means of explaining today's move.
Oil. Today oil fell $1.70 which normally makes stocks go up.
Jobless claims. The number of people claiming "unemployment benefits last week rose to 444,000, near a five-year high," according to the Times. But those numbers have been rising all year.
Today could be blamed on many issues. No ECB rate cut, oil confusion, weak economic data, and more. But this is looking like wholesale de-leveraging across the board amid new credit concerns and tightening standards. Want to see what a bubble popping in commodities looks like? The sad part is that there are very few spots to hide out in, which is perhaps more symptomatic of a bear market. Here are the unofficial closing bell levels: DJIA 11,185.63 (-347.25) S&P500 1236.76 (-38.22) NASDAQ 2259.04 (-74.69) 10YR T-Note 3.643% (-0.054%) 52-week lows Top Analyst Upgrades Top Analyst Downgrades
American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) may be testing out the waters to see how Wall Street reacts. There are reports that the insurance giant may spin-off its bad assets into a new high-risk company to get the assets off its books. Shares were down 6% right before the close.
Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ: CIEN) basically met earnings but it is seeing a slowdown and order delay from Tier One telecom and data carriers. It has now lowered revenue guidance to $190 to $210 million for its fiscal fourth quarter, far under the $263 million expected by analysts. Shares are down over 10% and at new 52-week lows.
Reuters reports that Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) saw its same-store sales grow by 3% in August -- almost double the 1.6% increase analysts were expecting. Reuters wrote that its "net sales in the month, ended August 29, rose 8.7 percent to $30.67 billion." Customers are rewarding Wal-Mart for sticking with its strategy of offering everyday low prices. As the middle class squeeze tightens its grip, investors are anticipating more such growth.
Tuesday night I taught a business school case written in the 1990s on Wal-Mart. The lesson of the case is that Wal-Mart understood that its customers wanted low prices and wide selection so it built a system for getting discounts from suppliers and keeping its shelves stocked with the items customers wanted to buy in each of its stores. But this system stopped working as well through much of the last seven years.
That's partially due to people borrowing against the rising value of their homes to shop at more upscale retailers. In the last year, however, more people have suffered as their incomes declined, the cost of food and fuel has hit record levels, and the value of their homes has plummeted. This middle-class squeeze pushes more and more people back to Wal-Mart since it provides the lowest prices on the items they need to keep their families functioning.
Investors have noticed -- driving its stock up 37% in the last year. As the economy worsens, Wal-Mart investors are likely to benefit -- its stock is up 1.1% in pre-market.
6 'Cheap' Stocks to Consider Shorting Sometimes what appears to be cheap really isn't. Here are a few companies Morningstar uncovered that fall into this category. they include Air France-KLM, Earthlink, Felcor Lodging Trust, Hertz, James River Coal and MEMC Electronic Materials. Six "Cheap" Stocks to Consider Shorting - Morningstar Stock Strategist 7 Bad Borrowing Strategies Just because you can, doesn't mean you should. Here are seven of the worst things you can do today if you need to borrow money. They include home equity loans, wedding loans, car title loans, payday loans and co-signing for somebody else's loan. 7 brainless borrowing behaviors -Bankrate.com
Stock futures were lower this morning as oil rose back above $110 a barrel and investors awaited a barrage of economic data due today including weekly oil inventories. Other economic indicators include data on employment, manufacturing and productivity. Also, retailers will be announcing August same-store sales. Overall, sales are expected to rise 2%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are deciding their interest rate policy today, where the ECB could tighten.
The first of the retailers has already reported August sales. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) said sales increased 3% in August, beating its forecast. Seems discounts drew shoppers. WMT shares are up over 1% in pre-market.
Unfortunately for Boeing (NYSE: BA), The International Machinists and Aerospace Workers union, which represents nearly 27,000 machinists, voted to strike as they rejected Boeing's contract offer. The union, however, postponed the strike by 48 hours as the two parties go to mediation. Boeing will likely suffer from a strike at a time it's struggling to stand by its Dreamliner obligations. BA stock is down over 1% in pre-market.
BP PLC (NYSE: BP) shares stand to rise after it finally reached an agreement with its billionaire Russian partners have over TNK-BP. While BP remains with a 50% holding in the venture, it has made many concessions, including agreeing to have the CEO Dudley leave. Shares are up over 2% in pre-market.
You can rest easy knowing these companies will deliver consistent returns over the long haul. Among Kiplinger's picks are Procter & Gamble, Electronic Arts, First Solar, Gilead Sciences, Google, Monsanto, Norfolk Southern, T. Rowe Rrice, Schlumberger and Visa.
Safeway (NYSE: SWY) closed at $26.34 Friday. SWY October option implied volatility of 39 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
SuperValu (NYSE: SVU) closed at $23.19 Friday. SVU October option implied volatility of 47 is above its 26-week average of 40, suggesting larger price movement.
Kroger (NYSE: KR) closed at $27.62 Friday. KR October option implied volatility of 32 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price risk.
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) closed at $59.07 Friday. WMT is scheduled to report August sales on September 4. WMT September option implied volatility of 27 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.
Target (NYSE: TGT) closed at $53.02 Friday. TGT is scheduled to report August sales on September 4. TGT October option implied volatility of 36 is below its 26-week average of 41, suggesting decreasing price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says with gas coming down further, the coming rally could be broad and fierce.
The great hurricane fakeout leaves us with oil much lower than it began, having launched itself from $112. Now that the $110 level's been breached and natural gas has gone as low as $7.50, we can begin to put together a holiday scenario that might -- just might -- explain the incredible run in retail that's been going on.
The presumption in retail, if you use Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) as retail, was that once the stimulus wore off, presumably last month, the stocks would get hammered. On Aug. 7, Wal-Mart as much as told you that, and the stock dropped to $57 from $60.90.
Ever since then, it has been creeping up. Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) (Cramer's Take) dropped a point from that warning, going from $45 to $44. It is now at $49. Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take) went from $19.80 to $18.90 before bouncing to $20.82. Jones (NYSE: JNY) (Cramer's Take) went from $17.40 to $17.20 before roaring to $19.80. Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) (Cramer's Take), because of a great quarter, didn't even get hurt, rallying from $67 to $75.
Welcome to the 74th installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions, and just a bit of everything else when it comes to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart.
This week, I'll be taking a look at whether Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (NYSE: WMT) attempts to fend off unions in its stores can continue succeeding. With Labor Day occurring in the U.S. tomorrow, it seemed appropriate to delve a little into Wal-Mart's potential labor union situation in its U.S. stores based on small gains being made in Canadian Wal-Mart locations.
North of the U.S. border, there has been a successful attempt to unionize Wal-Mart workers in the province of Quebec. Although the location is small, the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) union sees it as an entry point into unionizing more Wal-Mart Supercenters in Canada.
With critics saying that the entry of Wal-Mart into many markets (if not all) has caused wages to go down and competition to deteriorate, the heat won't go down on Wal-Mart's fending off collective unions in its Canadian stores. And, when the heat gets hot enough, the UFCW and others will set their sights on U.S. locations -- the holy grail of organized labor potential if there ever was one. Wal-Mart isn't taking those threats lying down, and has even called meetings with U.S. managers to bring the upcoming Presidential election into the fray.
Just as soon as Sears Holdings (NYSE: SHLD) re-arranged deck chairs on the Titanic, the retailer, headed by hedge-fund guru Eddie Lampert, reported another absolutely dismal quarter Thursday morning. In 2008, shares in Sears Holdings have sunk 36% as the retailer continued to report quarter after quarter of sluggish sales, declining revenue and underinvestment in its retail locations.
Lampert's idea of cutting investment in stores to boost actual investment returns has failed, and failed miserably. One thing customers respond to is constant change in their shopping environment, and this is where Sears has failed. Its stores look the exact same as they did four years ago. Even the logo has not changed.
Retailers like Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) apparently know way better how to get seasonal and high-request goods to their stores. They do it in a fashion that turns inventory and makes sales far better than Sears' manages with its current grip on retail. In fact, I am not sure Sears even has a current grip of retail. It's a goldfish (albeit a large one) nearing the top of the fishbowl. With Lampert's track record, one would think he would have made changes a year ago. He has not, and Sears continues to flounder badly. The Wall Street Journalthinks Lampert should go, and go now. What do you think?
Even Lampert's acumen in taking out pieces of an investment and selling for a profit hasn't worked out. What about selling off a good portion of its real estate holdings under the combined Sears/KMart umbrella to help make a profit? Even that time has passed though. Lampert's original prediction for Sears Holdings has failed, and unfortunately he won't be adding this experiment to his resume that includes the years-ago notion that he was the next Warren Buffett.
We're doing a rather last-minute interview here for publication Thursday morning (the 28th). What is on your mind to talk about?
Well, with the Democratic National Convention underway and therefore political season in full swing, lots of claims and counter claims will be made about taxes. Amid all the spin, careful analysis often gets lost. The Tax Policy Center (TPC), a non-partisan group, sat down with the top economic advisors for both campaigns and attempted to sort out just what the implications are from the proposals of each side would be.
And what is the verdict?
Well first of all, I strongly urge all readers who care about the long-term fiscal health of the U.S. Government to read the report.
But to my mind, given the massive size of the deficit this year and projected for next year, both McCain and Obama are being too "generous." Still, the charge of "tax and spend" is absurd if applied to either candidate, while the charge of "borrow and spend" is valid for both of them.
The Financial Timesreports on Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT) new Marketside store format, which the company describes as a "small community grocery store" (15,000 square feet). Wal-Mart is testing the format out in Arizona but has speculated that, if successful, the chain could grow to 1,500 stores with $10 billion in annual sales.
A look at the Marketside website is illustrative of what Wal-Mart's trying to do here: scanning around on the site, I can find exactly one reference to Wal-Mart, and even that one appears to be qualified: "Marketside is a small community grocery store owned by Wal-Mart Stores, Inc." In disclosing the ownership, Wal-Mart distances itself from its offspring.
Wal-Mart's purchasing power will give the new stores the same competitive advantage it has with its big box locations: lower prices. It remains to be seen whether the small size/lower sales will give Wal-Mart the scale it needs to earn out-sized profits. You have to think there's a reason Wal-Mart's been slow to test out smaller scale formats, opting instead to move into the uber-big box category with its Supercenter locations. This new format may be indicative of the company's pessimism about long-term domestic growth prospects with its bread and butter, and this diversification may be a sign of weakness rather than strength.
Wal-Mart's talent lies in logistics, not in building a great local grocery brand. I'll go out on a limb and predict that we won't hear too much more about Marketside after the initial push. I certainly wouldn't hold my breath waiting for one to open in a town nearby.
Welcome to the 73rd installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions, and just a bit of everything else when it comes to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart.
This week, I'll be taking a look at whether Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (NYSE: WMT) earlier decision to bring its store managers together and tell them about the possible repercussions of a Democratic president violated federal election laws. Since presumptive Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama has now chosen veteran politician Joe Biden as his running mate, is Wal-Mart chewing its corporate fingernails off?
The Democratic National Convention begins today, so it will be interesting to see what comes out of it. Did Wal-Mart violate federal campaign election laws by having an "education session" with the leaders (and in turn, employees) of its national store locations? Let's see what national labor unions think. Read on.
Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) is the world's largest retailer, offering a vast array of general merchandise through some 7,350 stores. That total includes nearly 1,000 discount stores, over 2,800 combination discount and grocery stores and about 600 warehouse outlets. More than half of Wal-Mart's stores are in the United States, but the firm has a widespread and growing international presence. It is the biggest retailer in Canada and Mexico, has a 95% stake in Japan's Seiyu and has developing operations in Europe, South America and Asia. The company employs more than two million associates and serves more than 200 million customers per year. Target (NYSE: TGT) and Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) are major competitors.
The stock has been a steady gainer of late, advancing on word of better than expected Q2 results, solid expectations for Q3/FY09, decent same-store sales figures, international development, and generally favorable analyst commentary.
The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.
Six of the eight did well and two did not, and of course one of those two was a disaster. Among the losers, I do not think anyone is fretting about UPS, which is still one of the few triple-A rated companies along with Berkshire Hathaway. It has been well reported that the slowing economy and higher fuel prices have been the major culprits affecting UPS's earnings. In the case of WaMu, it's demise has also been well reported, but at the time I recommended it WaMu had a stellar reputation of growth and high yield for over two decades. There is no hiding, it turned out to be a lousy pick and an ANTI-SAFE Haven
Washington Mutual(NYSE: WM) closed Monday at $4.21 down from $45.50; a 98% loss.
Fortunately the remaining six picks have done very, very well. If you had bought the pool, the average gain over the last two years would have been 7.14%. Adding the dividends over the two years would have raised this to 13.14%.
Nobody ever knows why the stock market goes up or down every day. But that doesn't stop people from offering reasons. For instance, people used to say that if oil prices fell, stocks would rise. They said that if the government came to the rescue of troubled financial institutions, that would boost stocks. And they suggested that if the Fed cut interest rates more than expected, investors would buy stocks.
Today could be blamed on many issues. No ECB rate cut, oil confusion, weak economic data, and more. But this is looking like wholesale de-leveraging across the board amid new credit concerns and tightening standards. Want to see what 
Safeway 
Welcome to the 74th installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions, and just a bit of everything else when it comes to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart.
Just as soon as 
The 
The Financial Times 
The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.
Stocks have their worst week in six years
Why haven't the Republicans said much about the economy?
Chasing Value: Are you watching WaMu?
